Afghani poppy farmers are estimated to have lost over $1 billion in value or 95% of their opium supply since the Taliban outlawed opium production in April 2022, according to a new report from the United Nations. 

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime issued a press release Sunday noting that the drastic drop in opium production could have devastating and far-reaching consequences for the rural communities of Afghanistan and on the international supply of opium derivatives such as heroin that come from opium produced in the area.

Since the time of the ban, the U.N. estimated that Afghani land dedicated to opium poppy production has dwindled from 233,000 hectares in 2022 to 10,800 hectares in 2023 (for reference a hectare is 100 acres). The total supply of opium produced in the area, as aforementioned, dwindled 95% from 6,200 tons to just 333 representing a 92% drop in income for the poppy farmers of Afghanistan. 

“This presents a real opportunity to build towards long-term results against the illicit opium market and the damage it causes both locally and globally,” said Ghada Waly, Executive Director of UNODC. “At the same time, there are important consequences and risks that need to be addressed for an outcome that is ultimately positive and sustainable, especially for the people of Afghanistan.

U.N. leadership warned that such a drastic reduction in the worldwide supply of opium could push traffickers more and more toward synthetic opium replacements, the most frequently used of which is fentanyl which has already seen a dramatic increase in use since the United States began cracking down on opiate-based pharmaceuticals. A BBC report in June of this year estimated that Afghani grown opium accounted for more than 80% of the world’s opium supply. Heroin derived from Afghani-made opium also accounted for 95% of the heroin supply in Europe.

The press release also indicated that methamphetamine production has increased in Afghanistan, presumably to replace the income lost from the opium trade. Another UNODC report from September indicated that Afghanistan was one of the world’s fastest growing producers of methamphetamine due to the legal availability of medications used to synthesize meth, as well as the ephedra plant, which just so happens to grow wild in the highlands of Afghanistan.

“Data on seizures indicate that traders are selling off their opium inventories from past record harvests to weather the shortfall in 2023, while heroin processing has decreased,” the press release said. “Trafficking in other drugs, namely methamphetamine, has surged in the region. Though there are high levels of opiate use within Afghanistan, evidence-based treatment options remain limited.”

The loss of income from poppy growing represents a dire threat to a region that is already considered to be very poor. Much of Afghanistan depends on agricultural-related sources of income to survive and years of drought combined with the Taliban taking power in 2021 have added additional strain to an already-unstable region. A Reuters report estimated that 30% of the total GDP of Afghanistan comes from agriculture.

“Nearly eighty percent of the population depends on agriculture, and Afghanistan already faces acute water scarcity challenges,” said Roza Otunbayeva, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. “Sustainable alternative development efforts must be oriented towards drought-resistant agricultural activities and the effective protection and use of resources.”

Until the Taliban enacted the opium ban, the GDP of the opiate trade far exceeded the total GDP of the country. According to the U.N. many Afghani farmers have opted to grow wheat instead of opium poppies since the ban, increasing the national output by 160,000 hectares. Though this may relieve some food insecurity, the U.N. estimates this will not be anywhere near enough to make up for the lost value from the opium trade.

“Today, Afghanistan’s people need urgent humanitarian assistance to meet their most immediate needs, to absorb the shock of lost income and to save lives,” Executive Director Waly said. “And over the coming months, Afghanistan is in dire need of strong investment in sustainable livelihoods, to provide Afghan farmers with opportunities away from opium.”

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