At a conference last week, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s president since 2018, said, “We are not going to act as policemen for any foreign government,” as quoted by the Associated Press. “Mexico First. Our home comes first.”

As the Associated Press noted, López Obrador has, in previous years, “laid out various justifications for his ‘hugs, not bullets’ policy of avoiding clashes with the cartels.” 

“In the past he has said ‘you cannot fight violence with violence,’ and on other occasions he has argued the government has to address ‘the causes’ of drug cartel violence, ascribing them to poverty or a lack of opportunities,” the AP reported, adding that “López Obrador’s view — like many of his policies — harkens back to the 1970s, a period when many officials believed that Mexican cartels selling drugs to gringos was a U.S. issue, not a Mexican one.”

On Friday, the president “basically argued that drugs were a U.S. problem, not a Mexican one,” and he “offered to help limit the flow of drugs into the United States, but only, he said, on humanitarian grounds,” according to the Associated Press.

“Of course we are going to cooperate in fighting drugs, above all because it has become a very sensitive, very sad humanitarian issue, because a lot of young people are dying in the United States because of fentanyl,” the president said. Over 70,000 Americans die annually because of synthetic opioids like fentanyl, which are mainly made in Mexico from precursor chemicals smuggled in from China,” López Obrador said.

In February, The New York Times reported that United States “law enforcement officials spent years looking into allegations that allies of” López Obrador “met with and took millions of dollars from drug cartels after he took office.”

The Times, citing U.S. records and three people familiar with the matter, said that the previously unreported inquiry “uncovered information pointing to potential links between powerful cartel operatives and Mexican advisers and officials close to the president while he governed the country.”

“But the United States never opened a formal investigation into Mr. López Obrador, and the officials involved ultimately shelved the inquiry. They concluded that the U.S. government had little appetite to pursue allegations against the leader of one of America’s top allies, said the three people familiar with the case, who were not authorized to speak publicly,” the Times reported at the time.

More from the Times’ report at the time:

“Much of the information collected by U.S. officials came from informants whose accounts can be difficult to corroborate and sometimes end up being incorrect. The investigators obtained the information while looking into the activities of drug cartels, and it was not clear how much of what the informants told them was independently confirmed. For example, records show that the investigators were told by an informant that one of Mr. López Obrador’s closest confidants met with Ismael Zambada García, a top leader of the Sinaloa drug cartel, before his victory in the 2018 presidential election. A different source told them that after the president was elected, a founder of the notoriously violent Zetas cartel paid $4 million to two of Mr. López Obrador’s allies in the hope of being released from prison. Investigators obtained information from a third source suggesting that drug cartels were in possession of videos of the president’s sons picking up drug money, records show.”

López Obrador, responding to The New York Times’ reporting, vehemently denied the allegations and called on the United States to clear up the matter.

“It’s all completely false,” López Obrador said in February. “The U.S. government is going to have to address this.”

He even suggested that the report could damage Mexico’s relationship with the U.S.

“Does this diminish the trust the Mexican government has in the United States?” Mr. López Obrador said, as quoted by the Times. “Time will tell.”

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Justice said there was no investigation into the Mexican president at the time.

The Associated Press, in its report on Lopez Obrador’s latest comments, has a rundown on his relatively lax view toward the cartels:

“López Obrador has argued before against ‘demonizing’ the drug cartels, and has encouraged leaders of the Catholic church to try to negotiate peace pacts between warring gangs. Explaining why he has ordered the army not to attack cartel gunmen, López Obrador said in 2022 ‘we also take care of the lives of the gang members, they are human beings.’ He has also sometimes appeared not to take the violence issue seriously. In June 2023, he said of one drug gang that had abducted 14 police officers: ‘I’m going to tell on you to your fathers and grandfathers,’ suggesting they should get a good spanking. Asked about those comments at the time, residents of one town in the western Mexico state of Michoacan who have lived under drug cartel control for years reacted with disgust and disbelief.”

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Mexican authorities have raided and dismantled the biggest meth lab found under the current presidential administration in the northern state of Sonora.

According to the Mexican Navy, a clandestine “mega-laboratory” was discovered recently in the area of Rancho Viejo, Quiriego, Sonora. That laboratory was raided by naval personnel on an undisclosed date and effectively neutralized.

“In coordination with [the Attorney General’s Office] [and the Attorney General’s Office of the State (FGE) of Sonora] and authorities of the state of Sonora, in recent days a mega laboratory was located and dismantled, the largest insured during the current administration, which was made up of six drug generation points and represents more than 50% of the drugs and precursors secured during the current year,” The Secretary of the Navy of Mexico said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

This particular raid was responsible for the seizure of 41,310 kilograms of bulk methamphetamine as well as 12,705 kilograms of precursor chemicals used to synthesize methamphetamine capable of producing a total of 54,015 kilograms of methamphetamine. The Mexican Navy indicated in a press release that if individually bagged and tagged for personal use, this would constitute over 1 billion doses of meth (not to split hairs but by my count it’s more like 540 million).

The Mexican Navy also indicated that 72 reactors, 102 condensers, 32 centrifuges, three vehicles, two motorcycles, a trailer and other miscellaneous material were seized during this operation. Before this raid the largest lab found was in Sinaloa and had only13 reactors. It was also noted in the same press release that after distribution, the amount of narcotics seized in this raid would have netted the cartels over $700 million USD. Including this raid, a total of 73,520 kilograms of methamphetamine and 141,470 kilograms of precursor chemicals have been seized and destroyed in Mexico thus far this year.

The United States has been ramping up pressure on President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and subsequently the country of Mexico to crack down on the flow of illegal narcotics from Mexico into the United States, the vast majority of which are fentanyl and methamphetamine produced by the cartels. As a result of this increased pressure, Mexico has been increasingly raiding drug labs around the country but a Reuters investigation released in March of last year found via leaked government documents that Mexico has been dramatically inflating the number of drug raids it performs.

This inflation was reportedly performed by including a large number of raids in the tallies shared with the U.S. which were labs that were already inactive by the time the military got there. In fact, a report released last December found that 89% of raids on suspected fentanyl-producing labs were performed on inactive labs. 

“These numbers are outrageous and not worth the paper they are written on,” said Matthew Donahue, former U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Regional Director to Reuters, calling the number inflation an attempt at “placating the United States and to make it appear they are doing something, when clearly they are not.”

Data obtained from the Mexican Defense Ministry by Reuters showed that in 2023, Mexican military units performed 503 raids on inactive labs and 24 raids on active labs. In 2022 the military raided 450 inactive labs and 42 active labs.  In 2021 it was 195 inactive and 22 active. In 2020, 267 inactive and 55 active.

This increased pressure by the U.S. on Mexico has been consistent to the tune of several in-person meetings and conversations between the Biden administration and President Obrador. It even led to an ominous warning to all drug cartels being posted on signs throughout SInaloa in October of last year expressly telling people to stop producing fentanyl in the area, though by all accounts fentanyl production has not slowed down whatsoever since the notices were posted. 

“Attention. Due to the incessant disinformation of some media and the obvious omission of the government in not investigating and prosecuting the true culprits of this epidemic,” the banners said (in Spanish). “In Sinaloa, the sale, manufacture, transportation or any type of business that involves the substance known as fentanyl is strictly prohibited, including the sale of chemicals for its preparation. We have never been nor will we be related to that business. [Be warned of] the consequences. Att: Chapitos,” the signs read.”

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A Reuters investigation found that raids on suspected fentanyl labs by the Mexican government have almost exclusively targeted inactive labs.

Pressure from the United States on Mexico to curb the massive flow of fentanyl coming into our country from theirs has led to a dramatic increase in raids on labs suspected of producing the powerful opioid responsible for the 73,000 some odd overdose deaths of American citizens in 2022 alone. However, it has recently come to light that at least 95% of the raids conducted between January and August of this year were on labs that had already shut down production, according to Reuters.

Data obtained through a freedom of information request submitted to SEDENA, the Mexican Defense Ministry showed that in 2023, Mexican military units performed 503 raids on inactive labs and 24 raids on active labs. In 2022 the military raided 450 inactive labs and 42 active labs. In 2021, the numbers were 195 and 22 respectively, and 267-55 in 2020.  Between December, 2018 and August, 2023 89% of the raids conducted on Mexican fentanyl laboratories were performed on inactive labs. 

Many have speculated this discrepancy in raid effectiveness has spurned from many sources, including the hands-off policies of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador who took office in 2018. President Lopez Obrador has been vocal about trying to solve narcotics issues where they begin by addressing issues like poverty rather than the traditional game of narcotics whack-a-mole so to speak of aiming to take higher level cartel captains. The numbers, however, would also suggest that President Lopez Obrador’s administration has been inflating the data they share with the U.S. by only sharing the total number of raids conducted rather than including the context of how effective these raids have been, as was pointed out by Guillermo Valdes, Mexico’s civilian spy chief from 2007 to 2011.

“SEDENA is ripping up its prestige by altering the figures. Who is going to believe them after this?” Valdes said to Reuters.

Other possible causes for such ineffective raids could be the same problems that have plagued the country of Mexico for decades. Cartel superpowers buying off government, military and law enforcement officials to look the other way and killing those who oppose them certainly makes it difficult to conduct such high-risk operations. One ex-cartel member told Reuters the practice of giving up smaller labs with the understanding that the larger labs can continue business as usual has been commonplace long before fentanyl entered the picture.

“The trade offs happened a lot,” said Margarito Flores, a former associate of notorious cocaine kingpin El Chapo who turned government informant in 2008, eight years before El Chapo’s capture. 

Two active Sinaloan traffickers who refused to be identified for obvious reasons also told Reuters that these raids were often “for show,” as there were several Mexican military members sympathetic to cartel causes and/or on cartel payroll.

Since this data was made available some U.S. lawmakers have accused Mexico of running a completely fictitious war on drugs. Republican Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), co-chairman of the senate’s international narcotics control caucus told Reuters this data shows that our neighbors to the South are “fighting an imaginary war on drugs designed to score political points rather than save lives.”

In October of this year, several banners appeared in Sinaloa appearing to ban fentanyl production in the area, though many wrote this off as a cartel tactic to relieve pressure on their organizations by the U.S. and Mexican governments. 

“Attention. Due to the incessant disinformation of some media and the obvious omission of the government in not investigating and prosecuting the true culprits of this epidemic,” the banners said (in Spanish). “In Sinaloa, the sale, manufacture, transportation or any type of business that involves the substance known as fentanyl is strictly prohibited, including the sale of chemicals for its preparation. We have never been nor will we be related to that business. [Be warned of] the consequences. Att: Chapitos.”

The recent data put forth by Reuters was capped in August of this year so it was not immediately clear whether these banners had any effect on fentanyl production, though the U.S. has certainly kept the pressure on Mexico to do something about the issue as President Biden and President Lopez Obrador just spoke on the phone Thursday concerning the need for more enforcement at the border. President Biden also visited the country in November to discuss similar issues.

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On May 11, the Mexican Supreme Court ruled in favor of “Édgar,” a young man facing prosecution for the last four years for cannabis possession. While he was absolved of his “crime,” the court failed to completely eliminate the criminalization of simple possession, ruling that it was not the police, but rather prosecutors and judges who should decide if possession is for personal use or not.

According to at least some of the judges, this was a victory. “The fact that the Public Prosecutor’s Office is allowed to initiate criminal proceedings against a person who possesses more than 5 grams of cannabis for personal consumption amounts to punishing moral qualities [and] personal behavior, which has no constitutional basis,” wrote Supreme Court Justice Juan Luis González Alcántara. “Criminal prosecution of the person who possesses cannabis in his or her private sphere, without affecting third parties or provoking a criminal incident, is not justified.”

Advocates, however, believe that this is a muddy, inconsequential decision by the Court (after years of behaving otherwise). Namely, they say the ruling is contradictory because it does not totally eliminate criminal charges for personal possession. Further it gives the public prosecutor too much leeway in deciding whether to pursue charges. People are still liable to be held by the police for up to 48 hours if arrested for possession, and of course, the resources taken up by this activity are still consequentially large. In 2020, more investigation files and preliminary investigations were initiated for simple cannabis possession than homicide (country wide).

Setting The Pace of Reform?

The decision is also clearly a surprise to court-watchers. Almost alone in the world at this point (apart from decisions in South Africa and Georgia), the Mexican Supreme Court has taken bold stands on the connection between cannabis possession, use, and fundamental human liberties and rights for the last seven years. And of these three countries, the Mexican court has been not only the most vocal, but at this point, has issued the most rulings.

The decision also came shortly after the Oaxaca City Council voted to stop police from arresting cannabis users as long as they were behaving respectfully. It also comes as the Mexican legislature is still plodding along on a cannabis bill, which was required by the court to pass last year.

The court’s decision, in other words, could be a reluctance on the part of the country’s top judges to dictate the amount that qualifies for personal possession—in this case 30 grams—to lawmakers as they consider how to proceed with a cannabis legalization bill.

The legislature, also despite court order, has only advanced the issue at a snail’s pace. They were supposed to finalize this last December. Instead, the federal process has repeatedly stalled at a federal level. That said, the Mexican Congress could vote to legalize this year.

The Mexican President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador remains ambiguously hesitant about the entire issue.

An Ongoing Clash Between the Courts and the Legislature

The battle in Mexico at the highest legal level has been going on since 2015, when the court ruled that sections of the country’s health law were invalid, by de facto legalizing the cultivation, possession, and use of cannabis. Last year the court also ruled that bans on personal consumption were a guaranteed personal liberty. However the earlier decision did not consider the 5 gram decriminalization measure in place since 2009. People in possession of larger quantities still face a prison sentence of up to three years.

That is what Mexican advocates hoped this decision would solve as the legislature slowly moves forward on passing legislation.

Could the Mexican Government Approve Recreational Use This Year?

The decision comes at an interesting time, literally five weeks after Israel decriminalized use. Mexico has been on the “cusp of legalization” at this point for seven years. Presumably, however, if either the United States or Germany passes legalization measures, it will also galvanize Mexico to finally decide its cannabis users’ fate by formal law rather than judicial decisions at the highest level.

This means that 2022 could be a record year for legalizing countries—and as a result, become a tipping point for global recreational reform.

It is certainly going to be an interesting and intriguing 8 months on a global basis.

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