According to a new research report, “Changes in and correlates of Australian public attitudes toward illicit drug use,” published in the Drug and Alcohol Review, attitudes towards cannabis have rather dramatically shifted in Australia. 

The National Drug Strategy Household Survey (or NDSHS) is a national cross-sectional survey of drug and alcohol use in Australians aged 14 and older. It excludes those in hospitals, nursing homes, those with no fixed addresses and or serving in the military, in prison and those who do not speak English. Conducted every three years, it normally samples about 20,000 people using random sampling spread across 15 different regions. 

Specific Findings for Australia

The first finding is the most interesting if not exactly surprising. Namely, support for legalization of cannabis rose only a few points between 2007 and 2013, but much more dramatically from 25.5 percent of the population in 2013 to 41.1 percent by 2019. Support for legalizing other forms of drugs, like cocaine and ecstasy also rose dramatically, although not as much as for cannabis. Support did not change noticeably for a change in the legalization of heroin.

The study also found that support for legalization is unaffected by age except those older than 50. Men are still more supportive of legalization than women, as are university graduates. Native Australians are also more supportive of cannabis use than expats. Employment status is unrelated to the support of legalization.

Finally, the number of people supporting punishment for possession of small amounts for personal use has continued to drop.

Meanings and Interpretations

The most significant findings of the study are no surprise. Australia has moved forward steadily on medical reform for the past several years. This in and of itself has always changed the conversation—and in every legalizing jurisdiction and country so far. See North America as well as Europe to date since 2013.

While support for the legalization of other “illicit” drugs also was found to have increased, which is in part a generational response to the punitive nature of the War on Drugs, support is also markedly greater for cannabis.

Support across generations is also consistent with other studies elsewhere, despite the Boomers’ reputation as the generation which “rediscovered” cannabis (as well as other illicit drugs). 

The Impact of North American Reform

It is undeniable that the impact of reform in North America (in both Canada and the U.S.) has impacted the discussion about cannabis reform elsewhere since the turn of the century and even more since the start of the last decade’s events, which saw legalization movements take hold in both the U.S. and Canada. This also has everything to do with how news of reform has spread—namely carried through digital, social media channels. 

However, one thing is clear. In the last decade, cannabis reform has become a global topic, including of course in Australia.

What is Likely to Happen Next Down Under?

The answer to that question is very much up in the air, particularly now. 

As of just last December, the last national German poll on the topic showed that just under 50 percent of Germans now supported recreational reform. As of this year, full-boat legalization is high on the agenda of the new political coalition.

Given the fact that cannabis reform generally in Australia has been influenced by, if not has tracked German developments, this could mean that as early as next year, the issue could be brought up again on a national level here too. 

Last year, the first cannabis legalization specific political party was formed in Queensland. This year, a “territory” effort in Victoria was squashed in August. The issue has been heating up there for the last several years, gaining more steam, unsurprisingly, on the national level, as medical reform has progressed.

The fact that Australia is also, like other countries, beginning to consider cannabis reform as a valuable source of domestic taxation beyond a high value crop designed for export, is clearly another reason why the issue will undoubtedly continue to progress. 

Interestingly, the study was also published as the national health regulator in Australia rejected psychedelics for therapeutic use.

The Impact of English-Speaking Cannabis Reform

One thing is also undeniably clear during the period this study has taken place—namely the importance also of English-speaking, global digital, pro-cannabis media. This in turn has absolutely driven the largest countries in the world where English is the spoken language to forward the issue in every case since Uruguay. 

The fact that Germany will become the largest industrial country to legalize recreational use as soon as potentially next year, at least legislatively, will also make an impact. Starting with the fact that Deutschland is already of interest to those in the Australian medical industry seeking to sell to this market.

No matter what, in other words, the Aussies appear now to be on the brink of greater reform. And like New Zealand, which also narrowly defeated recreational reform last year in the general election by just over two points, not to mention in other countries, steady as she goes at this point means that majorities in most democratic, Western nations will be in the “for” column within the next couple of years.

In the meantime, a burgeoning industry will find a way to make its way through the regulatory spaces and developments. And that includes, of course, the conversation down under.

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Here is one truism about the cannabis revolution. It has tended (so far) to be virulently opposed by the extreme right wing—and in every country. No matter what one thinks of John Boehner’s record on the drug war, not to mention his current position on the board of Acreage, the company slated to merge with Canopy Growth when federal reform of cannabis happens in the U.S.), he is a pragmatist, with a long history of taking cash from the pharma lobby in the U.S.

Bill 399/15, legalizing the cultivation of cannabis for medical purposes, and now in front of the Brazilian House, is about to change all of that. It will be voted on in late November and is expected to pass, going on to the Senate, where it is also expected to do so.

The issue has been simmering at a federal level since this summer, with all kinds of politicking between proponents and those who oppose cannabis reform. It is especially politically delicate given the extreme anti-cannabis predilections of the current President Jair Bolsonaro. Indeed, as a way of placating naysayers, the idea is to also pass another law to regulate home education (a major political plank of the sitting president).

Here is how to understand how delicate all of this is politically. Earlier this year, Bolsonaro used a national security law dating from the period when the country was governed under military rule to detain and or investigate critics of his poor handling of the country’s COVID pandemic. In March, he detained people who called him “genocidal” and displaying a cartoon depicting him as a Nazi.

Common Sense (and the Agricultural Lobby) are Making a Difference

Here is the first compelling reason why sitting politicians in both houses are willing to defy the president, no matter how much Bolsonaro has made derogatory public statements including calling the bill “crap” and threatening to veto the same (which could in turn be overturned by Congress). Those who would be otherwise persuaded to continue with the status quo are being rather rapidly convinced that cannabis is powerful medicine.

Beyond this, the more compelling interest here is the agricultural lobby of the country, which of course is looking at business development projects not only in Latin America at this point (see Mexico if not Columbia) and moving with the global tide.

That said, cannabis with a THC content that divides it from hemp will have to be grown in strictly controlled conditions (such as a two-meter fence and biometric identification).

Sustainable Cannabis and Biodiversity in Brazil?

Given the conditions being laid down, there are two ways the industry could develop here. It could be just the thing this country, home to endangered rainforests and alarmingly decreasing biodiversity, needs. Best practices of cannabis cultivation is already a topic of interest in places like South Africa, where gold mining has created, literally, toxic land full of heavy metals and other runoff from poorly managed operations.

However, cannabis monoculture is a threat here. The capital for operations that meet both impending regulations and can be exported, will be inextricably tied to foreign corporations who will demand the same. EU-GMP cannabis, for example, must be grown inside man-made greenhouses. That does not spell good news for an already beleaguered country—at least from the ecology perspective. So far, tragically, the industry has tended to adopt the cheapest practices, rather than the most sustainable. See the history, so far at least, of the larger public Canadian firms (who are of course also circling).

That said, issues of a warming and increasingly less biologically diverse planet cannot be entirely ignored, even in this industry. If landrace cannabis is given priority here, perhaps a call for preserving the rapidly shrinking rainforests and the country’s biodiversity might take hold. There have been several attempts, in fact, to create cannabis cultivations that preserve the existing biodiversity of their immediate environs and even attach carbon credits to the same. So far, the market has not broadly responded, but this too may change.

Ethically aware and sensitive cannabis is already a trend in countries in Africa. There is no reason that this might not also happen in Brazil.

However, given Bolsonaro’s current predilections, if not immediate past history on such issues, including seizing land from native tribes two years ago, the immediate future, at least, is not bright.

Beyond biodiversity, however, perhaps it is a small comfort to those whose sole interest is cannabis reform to understand that the right wing can, in highly limited circumstances, be forced to accept reform.

The question will be in Brazil, at least, will it be worth it?

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