Opponents of recreational cannabis legalization have argued that increased cannabis use could diminish motivation, impede cognitive function and harm health, ultimately affecting the economic wellbeing of adults. However, an analysis published by the National Bureau of Economic Research finds the opposite is true: Legalization of adult-use cannabis is actually associated with economic improvements and increased job opportunities.

Researchers at San Diego State University and Bentley University performed the study, which they said is the first to explore the impacts of recreational cannabis laws on employment, wages and labor market outcomes of working-age individuals. They used data from the 2002-2020 Current Population Survey Merged Outgoing Rotation Groups, along with various difference-in-difference approaches including TWFE and Callaway and Sant’Anna estimators.

Ultimately, the researchers said they found “little evidence that RMLs [recreational marijuana laws] adversely affect labor market outcomes among most working-age individuals.”

Rather, they found evidence of “modest increases” in employment and wages, especially among those over the age of 30 (often shorter-run gains), younger racial/ethnic minorities and those working within the agricultural sector. 

“These results are consistent with the opening of a new licit industry for marijuana and (especially for older individuals) a substitution away from harder substances such as opioids,” researchers said.

The working paper’s introduction begins with two contrasting quotes from Elon Musk and Seth Rogan—Musk’s quote, “I’m not a regular smoker of weed … I don’t find that it is very good for productivity,” and Rogan’s, “I smoke a lot of weed when I write.”

The paper’s focus was not on cannabis and productivity among individuals, though a number of recent studies have explored that question with conflicting results. One 2022 study concluded cannabis use has no effect on motivation, though a 2016 study suggested improved performance and cognitive function for cannabis users. Others have concluded cannabis use could indeed lead to lower motivation.

Instead, this analysis explored broader economic trends following recreational cannabis legalization. Ultimately, the authors said that cannabis reform has introduced a new industry, which ultimately creates jobs and opportunities for the working class. 

In addition to the bustling job opportunities, researchers said that legal cannabis access keeps more people away from other substances, like opioids or heavy alcohol use, that can lead to negative effects on productivity. They also note that, if cannabis is effective in improving physical or psychological health symptoms, these improvements could also work to generate “positive labor market spillovers.” 

With legal cannabis, there is also reduced criminalization surrounding possession, once again allowing for better labor market outcomes, especially among young Black and Hispanic men, who have “disproportionately suffered diminished labor market opportunities due to having a criminal record,” researchers said.

Due to the relatively new market, researchers said the study was limited simply based on the limited period available to analyze. 

“Longer-run labor market effects may differ as we learn about the effects of RMLs on cognitive development and human capital acquisition of those under age 21, which could take time to unfold and be reflected in market level effects on productivity, wages, and/or employment,” they concluded. “Moreover, the labor market effects of reductions in criminal records could also take time to unfold.”

Researchers also said that it’s difficult to confirm how the new legal industry will evolve over time, citing the initial COVID-19 period as a “dramatic increase” for cannabis sales and the period following it “one of dramatically declining sales.”

“Nonetheless, our findings answer some important early questions about the economic consequences of recreational marijuana legalization,” authors said.

Previous studies have confirmed an association between recreational cannabis laws and increased employment levels among older adults. Data compiled last year by Leafly and Whitley Economics also shows the cannabis industry added more than 100,000 new jobs in 2021 and employed more than 428,000 full-time workers at the time of its release.

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Research by Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups found that social media content in the city featuring drugs saw over a threefold increase, from 927 in 2016 to 3,114 by the end of last year, first reported by RTHK News. The survey also takes aim at cannabidiol (CBD), as authorities consider a ban on the up-and-coming cannabinoid.

The study, released last week, also found an increase in video views in the same period for drug-related content, from about 3.4 million to 7.6 million.

Additionally, researchers noted that social media users posted a variety of content over the period, including popular memes, hashtags and non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) to promote drug use. NFTs have grown in popularity over the years as a unique digital asset, often taking the form of art, that can’t be copied.

“We found some NFT in the high-risk websites,” said Michael Leung, who works for the group’s youth crime prevention center. Leung added that high-risk users utilizing memes, hashtags, cartoon characters and NFTs to promote drugs “causes some users to underestimate the risks and severity of drug abuse problem.”

The group also polled around 1,300 younger adults, from November 2021 to July 2022, and found that 20% “underestimated the harm of drugs.” Specifically, more than one-fifth of respondents believed they were able to control “any cravings” for drugs. About 18% of interviewees also said they felt taking drugs could relieve anxiety.

The study also found that more than half of all drug-related posts originated on a platform, similar to Reddit, called LIHKG, followed by Instagram and HKGolden online forum. Half of all content logged by the study reference cannabis, while cocaine and methamphetamine were featured in 11.6% and 8.4% of posts, respectively.

Leung attributed some of the more recent interest around drugs to the COVID-19 pandemic, as many residents were confined to their homes and used social media more often since 2020.

CBD is among the specific drugs seeing an increase in traffic over this time period, too, with the number of related views increasing from 5,707 in 2019 to 11,840 in 2020 and 43,980 in 2021. Bob Lee Siu-chui, a supervisor of the federation’s youth crime prevention center, said that CBD in particular has been advertised as a stress-relief and healthcare product “for enticement, lowering the wariness among young people,” South China Morning Post reports.

CBD is legal in Hong Kong, so long as it doesn’t contain THC.

“Some products may contain THC, an easily addictive substance that is regulated by the Dangerous Drugs Ordinance,” Lee said. Lee also expressed concern that CBD could become a gateway for young people to start using and selling other drugs.

In turn, the city’s law enforcement agencies are currently pushing to outlaw CBD within the year, stressing the illegal status of cannabis in an attempt to dissuade residents from trying out the non-psychoactive cannabinoid.

“There is a trend in Hong Kong that some online users discuss CBD,” Leung said, adding that “many people” have underestimated the risks of CBD and the severity of damages cannabis can cause.

A spokesperson told South China Morning Post that the government would seek to ban CBD products in early 2023.

“The government has taken a firm stance against cannabis and repeatedly stated that the use, cultivation, manufacturing, trafficking…of cannabis and controlled cannabis products are illegal and will remain so,” he said. “We will continue to educate the public, especially young people, to correctly understand that cannabis is a drug and it is harmful to health.”

The 2016 Brookings Institution report, “A People’s War: China’s Struggle to Contain its Illicit Drug Problem,” notes that China has faced a growing problem of illicit drug use. The amount of registered drug addicts increased every year until publication since the government’s first annual drug enforcement report in 1998. This problem is arguably compounded by the fact that drug addiction is considered a personal failure and is highly stigmatized, with drug addiction not receiving much public sympathy or government funding in the country.

“There are two main strategies for treating addiction in China: (1) enrollment in compulsory detoxification centers, and (2) sentencing to ‘education through labor’ camps,” the report reads.

The authors, San Diego State University sociology professor Sheldon X. Zhang and Rutgers University criminal justice professor Ko-lin Chin, instead recommended that China apply a public health approach to the treatment of addicts. Additionally, they recommend China promote evidence-based treatment programs, based on scientific research; establish a reliable drug market forecast system, combining chemical composition analysis, reports and urine tests of arrested drug offenders and community informants on illicit drug use trends; and increase the efficiency of its international collaboration.

“While not a silver bullet, perhaps China … should also consider experimenting with a more compassionate approach oriented toward harm reduction,” the authors concluded.

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