The campaign to legalize cannabis in Florida is alive and well, as the state’s Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that voters will be able to decide the next chapter of cannabis reform on this year’s November ballot.

With an already bustling medical market, Florida’s potential move into the recreational cannabis space has been highly anticipated since the Sunshine State first moved to introduce medical reform in 2016. Cannabis businesses also have a hefty investment in the reform measure, with Trulieve contributing more than $40 million to the campaign, alongside an additional several million dollars from a handful of other medical cannabis treatment centers.

While the momentum ahead of Election Day feels significant, it’s possible that there may not be enough support to pass the measure under the state Constitution — at least when it comes to the results of a new poll.

The Latest Poll on Florida Adult-Use Cannabis Legalization

In Florida, measures must gain 60% support in order to pass. A new USA Today/Ipsos survey suggests that a majority of registered Florida voters, 56%, support the measure — along with 49% of Florida adults overall. Forty percent said that they would vote against it, and just 4% said that they were unsure.

Democrats and independents were most supportive of the measure (69% and 63%, respectively), while 39% of registered Republican voters  said they would vote in favor of the measure. The survey also found that support varied by region, with those in central Florida more likely to say they are in favor of recreational cannabis legalization than those in north or south Florida (54%, 49% and 38%, respectively).

While there are no differences in self-reported plans to vote for recreational cannabis legalization by gender or age, white Floridians were more likely than Hispanic Floridians to say they would vote in favor of recreational cannabis legalization later this year (55% vs. 32%, respectively).

The poll was conducted April 5-7 and included 369 Republicans, 264 Democrats and 316 independents.

Various Poll Results Point to Uncertain Outcomes

The poll is notable as the first to come out following the Florida Supreme Court’s decision to clear the measure for the ballot and reject the state attorney general’s constitutional challenge.

It’s also the most recent survey among a slew of similar recent efforts to gauge Floridian support of recreational cannabis, with varying results.

A November 2023 poll from the University of North Florida found that 67% of respondents said they would vote yes on a constitutional amendment to allow adults in Florida to purchase and possess small amounts of cannabis for personal use. It also notes that 70% of respondents supported recreational cannabis in Florida as of Spring 2023 along with 76% showing support in Spring 2022.

The most recent poll notably gave respondents the specifics of the proposed amendment, rather than simply asking if respondents supported or opposed legalization of recreational cannabis.

The measure, Amendment 3, would allow those over the age of 21 to possess up to three ounces of cannabis and five grams of cannabis concentrates. It would also allow existing medical cannabis dispensaries authorization to sell cannabis for adult use. The initiative is sponsored by Smart and Safe Florida.

The poll results represent some of the gaps Smart and Safe Florida must close to see legal recreational cannabis in Florida as the organization enters its next phase of outreach and education.

That said, Florida voters approved legal medical cannabis in 2016 with a vote of 71% to 29%. With more than six months until Election Day, it’s anyone’s guess how the cards will ultimately  fall.

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The group that is powering a proposed constitutional amendment to legalize recreational cannabis in Florida is halfway to its goal of getting the measure on next year’s ballot.

According to the News Service of Florida, supporters of the proposed amendment “have submitted more than 420,000 valid petition signatures to the state,” and they will “need to submit at least 891,589 signatures to get on the ballot” in 2024.

“Last month, the committee topped a 222,898-signature threshold needed to trigger a crucial Florida Supreme Court review of the proposed ballot wording,” the News Service reported.

The group behind the effort, Smart and Safe Florida, is being heavily backed by the medical cannabis company Trulieve, which has a significant presence in the Sunshine State.

Smart and Safe Florida launched its campaign last summer.

“We came into this with a mission to provide access to high-quality products that are safe and have an appropriate value proposition to give folks control over their—in the original days—medical journey,” Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers said at the time. “I don’t think that changes here. I mean, in effect we are at our core about expanding the opportunity for access to safe legal product, which is what this would allow us to continue to do.”

Trulieve donated $5 million last summer when the campaign launched.

According to the News Service of Florida, the company “had spent $25 million as of the end of January on the Smart & Safe Florida initiative.”

The amendment would legalize the possession and consumption of cannabis for adults in Florida aged 21 and older, and would also set the framework for a state-regulated pot industry. 

Specifically, the measure would enable the state’s existing medical cannabis facilities to transition into recreational pot dispensaries.

Florida legalized medical cannabis in 2016.

“One of the interesting aspects here is that we do have [a] medical-cannabis market and we have hundreds of thousands of patients in Florida who are utilizing medical cannabis regularly. So our ability to reach out and to have more direct communication…is a bit unique from a positioning perspective,” Rivers said in the summer.

Activists in Florida have been stymied in their previous attempts to get marijuana legalization over the line, including most recently in 2021, when an initiative was blocked by the state Supreme Court.

“Every initiative has provided some level of learning,” Rivers said last year. “With this initiative, the authors have taken a hard look at the Supreme Court rulings surrounding the previous efforts and taken that into consideration. We believe it’s a very appropriate and narrowly focused amendment that does defer appropriately to the Legislature.”

With a growing population that ranks as the third largest in the country, Florida is a coveted potential market for cannabis investors.

“Florida is definitely a market of interest, especially compared to some of the other more mature, more saturated markets,” said Jade Green, president of cannabis industry consulting firm Next Titan Capital. “The main reason is, everybody has a similar belief that, whatever happens in 2024, eventually adult-use (recreational) cannabis will come to Florida.” 

“If you can make it in Florida until rec (recreational marijuana) hits, then you will have a significant advantage in what will be one of the largest cannabis economies not just in the U.S. but in the world,” Green added.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely thought of as 2024 Republican presidential contender, has spoken negatively about marijuana legalization in the past.

“What I don’t like about it is if you go to some of these places that have done it, the stench when you’re out there, I mean, it smells so putrid,” DeSantis said last year.

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